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Maui’s condo market just nosedived, with average sales prices plunging 44% in a single year. But this is not only a real estate story. It is a warning sign for travelers, as the future of vacation rentals on the island becomes increasingly uncertain.

What is behind the condo market collapse?

According to the Realtors Association of Maui, the median condo price fell 35% compared with the same period last year, dropping to $650,000 from $1 million. The average sales price fell even further, down 44% to $1.14 million. Inventory has surged to a 15-month supply, a level not seen in more than a decade. The number of sales is down 26% year-to-date.

On the surface, these numbers might suggest an opportunity for buyers. In reality, they reveal a market paralyzed by doubt. Sellers are reluctant to list, owners are unsure whether their condos will remain legal as rentals, and travelers are increasingly unwilling to commit to bookings. The steep drop in both median and average prices is a clear indication of how unsettled the market has become.

Nothing will change for visitors overnight.

Even under the current proposal, the phase-out of thousands of transient vacation rentals is designed to unfold over the upcoming years, and some observers say it could stretch to five years or longer once the inevitable legal challenges are factored in. For visitors, this means the accommodations landscape may appear unchanged in the short term, but the uncertainty is already clearly shaping the decisions made today.

How visitors are affected.

For decades, Maui’s condo market has been the backbone of family vacations and repeat visits. Condos offered space for groups, kitchens for extended stays, and prices that made Hawaii accessible to middle-income travelers. With condo values collapsing and regulations tightening, that model is under threat.

This shift mirrors what we observed in our earlier report, “Maui Visitors Are Quietly Saying It: We’re Not Coming Back,” which generated nearly 700 reader responses. While the reasons varied, the themes were consistent. Visitors are weary of nonstop cost increases layered on top of resort fees, parking charges, and new taxes. Many now hesitate to book rentals they fear may not be available by the time their vacation arrives, even if that concern proves entirely unfounded. For some, the uncertainty itself, combined with the ongoing controversy, has become a tipping point.

The steep drop in condo values is a direct reflection of that hesitation. It is not only buyers who are holding back. Visitors are, too.

Hotels may dominate Maui’s future.

If Maui proceeds with phasing out nearly 7,000 transient vacation rentals, the balance of visitor lodging will tilt sharply toward hotels and resort-zoned condos. That would mean fewer affordable choices for families, less flexibility for groups, and heavier reliance on high-end resort properties concentrated in West and South Maui.

For travelers, the practical impact is already clear. Booking earlier is becoming important as resort supply remains limited. Higher rates are likely to be the outcome if competition dwindles. And the familiar home-away-from-home condo experience that once defined Maui vacations may soon be much more elusive.

A fragile visitor economy.

Single-family homes on Maui have held steady at around $1.3 million, but those properties have never been a significant part of the visitor lodging equation. What matters is the condo sector, and that is where the disruption sits.

Maui’s visitor economy is fragile. It is not only about fire recovery. It is about the layering of rising costs, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting sentiment that together create a new level of risk. The collapse in condo prices is not an isolated incident. It is another warning sign that travelers are already rethinking their plans.

What travelers should do now.

For anyone planning a Maui trip in the coming years, resort-zoned properties and hotels remain the most straightforward choice, since they are not directly affected by the proposed phase-out. Thousands of Minatoya List condos are also expected to continue operating, even as legal battles play out. What matters most to visitors is understanding that the rules are still in flux and could take three to five years or longer to be fully resolved.

With that in mind, flexibility is key. Choosing accommodations with clear cancellation policies provides protection in case of any sudden changes. Booking ahead remains essential, as some owners may hesitate to list their units while the market sorts itself out. And while many travelers will continue to visit Maui, others may explore different islands or destinations until there is more clarity.

Looking ahead.

Maui’s condo market just sent a clear message. Uncertainty has consequences. The island’s visitors, once among the most loyal in the world, are rethinking their plans. Whether Maui can steady itself before those quiet goodbyes become permanent is now the island’s defining challenge.

How are these changes affecting your own Maui travel plans, and do you see yourself booking the island again or looking elsewhere?